Estimating Climate Sensitivity: Report Of A Workshop by ESTIMATING CLIMATE SENSITIVITY WORKSHOP

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Document ranges and distributions in the literature, including sources of information about the key causes of uncertainty. , distinguish findings that are well established through observations and tested theory from those that are not so well established). 3. Given the nature of the uncertainties and the state of science, make an initial determination of the appropriate level of precision. Is the state of science such that only qualitative estimates are possible, or is quantification possible and if so, to how many significant digits?

Wigley. html Copyright © 2003 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. edu) for research purposes are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Distribution, posting, or copying is strictly prohibited without written permission of the NAP. ro on Tue Aug 26 02:57:09 2003 SENSITIVITY (°C) Figure 2. Distribution functions (probability densities) assumed for the climate sensitivity, expressed as the equilibrium warming for 2*CO2. 5°C as the 90 percent probability interval. SOURCE: Wigley and Raper, 2001.

Slingo. 2002. Diagnostic analysis of atmospheric moisture and clear-sky radiative feedback in the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models. J. Geophys. Res. 107(D17):4329. Andronova, N. and M. E. Schlesinger. 2000. Causes of global temperature changes during the 19th and 20th centuries. Geophysical Research Letters 27(14):2137-2140. , and M. E. Schlesinger. 2001. Objective estimation of the probability distribution for climate sensitivity. J. Geophys. Res. 106(D19):22605-22612.

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