Debt Relief for the Poorest: An Evaluation Update of the by Shonar Lala

By Shonar Lala

Long ago decade, debt reduction has develop into an more and more major automobile for supplying improvement relief. This replace builds at the findings of the 2003 autonomous evaluate of the seriously Indebted bad nations (HIPC) initiative. It reveals that a number of the unique conclusions stay suitable for the HIPC initiative and are most likely instructive for destiny debt aid projects. the improved HIPC initiative minimize debt ratios in part for 18 nations. yet in 8 of those international locations, the ratios have come to once more exceed HIPC thresholds. Debt aid on my own isn't really a adequate tool to impact the a number of drivers of debt sustainability. Sustained advancements in export diversification, economic administration, the phrases of recent financing, and public debt administration also are wanted, measures that fall outdoors the ambit of the HIPC initiative. Debt aid less than HIPC has channeled extra improvement assets to qualifying international locations – those nations have got an elevated percentage of total relief transfers. HIPC international locations that aren't but at of entirety aspect face severe demanding situations in coping with their economies. protecting coverage functionality is vital for those nations to harvest the advantages of debt aid.

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4. Guyana Is Projected to Exceed 250 Percent Threshold of Debt to Revenues Beyond Completion Point NPV of debt to revenues 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 CP CP+1 CP+2 CP+3 CP+4 CP+5 CP+6 CP+7 CP+8 Year relative to completion point (CP) Guyana Source: World Bank data. the medium term, spurred by oil revenues, and continue to decline over the long term. In Burkina Faso, the external debt indicator worsens in the medium term owing to expenditure run-ups and weak export growth; and in Mali it is marginally above the threshold toward the end of the projection period.

1. Findings from the 2003 Evaluation: Debt Sustainability Analyses The 2003 evaluation found that the methodological basis underlying the projections of future levels of debt is unclear, and that the World Bank and the IMF have been too optimistic in the economic projections underlying the HIPC DSAs. The lack of transparency of the economic models behind these projections and the overly optimistic growth assumptions have made debt sustainability analyses ambiguous (in regard to their reliability as assessments of future debt sustainability).

6 It is possible that growth in the next decade in the HIPC countries could exceed historical bounds for the 1980s and 1990s, owing to improved domestic and external factors or as countries emerge from conflict. And so far, actual GDP growth from 2000 to 2004 has been almost double the growth in the 1990s; export growth has been more than twice as high. 8 more optimistic than percentage points lower than the most recent even the high actual rates projections, a difference of recent years. 1. 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Earlier growth projections (decision point) 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Later growth projections (completion point) Source: World Bank and IMF data.

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