Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, by National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life
By National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Stabilization Targets for Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
Emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels have ushered in a brand new epoch the place human actions will mostly make certain the evolution of Earth's weather. simply because carbon dioxide within the surroundings is lengthy lived, it will probably successfully lock the Earth and destiny generations right into a diversity of affects, a few of that could turn into very serious. Emissions mark downs judgements made this present day topic in making a choice on affects skilled not only over the following couple of many years, yet within the coming centuries and millennia. in response to weather Stabilization objectives: Emissions, Concentrations, and affects Over a long time to Millennia, vital coverage judgements might be knowledgeable through fresh advances in weather technology that quantify the relationships among raises in carbon dioxide and worldwide warming, similar weather adjustments, and ensuing affects, corresponding to adjustments in streamflow, wildfires, crop productiveness, severe scorching summers, and sea point upward push. a method to notify those offerings is to contemplate the projected weather adjustments and affects that might happen if greenhouse gases within the surroundings have been stabilized at a selected focus point. The ebook quantifies the results of other stabilization ambitions for greenhouse fuel concentrations utilizing analyses and knowledge drawn from the clinical literature. even though it doesn't suggest or justify any specific stabilization aim, it does offer vital medical insights concerning the relationships between emissions, greenhouse fuel concentrations, temperatures, and affects. weather Stabilization ambitions emphasizes the significance of twenty first century offerings relating to long term weather stabilization. it's a resource for scientists, educators and coverage makers, between others.
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Extra resources for Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia
4 illustrates that the retreat of Arctic sea ice is more compact when plotted versus global mean temperature rather than time, and this aids the understanding of the effect of stabilization at various target levels. Published studies of the range of the date when late summer Arctic sea ice is expected to disappear range from 2037 to beyond 2100. Models suggest that late summer Arctic sea ice decreases rapidly if warming exceeds about 2°C. By the end of the 21st century (global warming of about 3-5°C relative to pre-industrial conditions) an ice-free Arctic ocean in late summer is predicted by most models.
These include shifts in terrestrial and marine species ranges and abundances (including die-off in some cases), increased risk of heat-related human health impacts, loss of infrastructure in coastal regions (due to sea level rise) and the Arctic (due to sea level rise, retreat of sea ice and associated coastal erosion, and permafrost loss). This summary of temperature-related impacts is intended to be indicative rather than comprehensive. 6 does not include all possible temperature-sensitive impacts, such as projected extinctions due to climate change and increased risks to national security.
As in previous figures, for discussion of transient and equilibrium warming see Chapter 3, where it is noted that the probability distribution of climate sensitivity is uncertain; larger or smaller warmings than the estimated likely value for a given carbon dioxide equivalent concentration cannot be ruled out. Ranges are shown for climate impacts over the globe or over large regions; specific regions, crops, river basins, etc. and their uncertainties are discussed in detail later in the report.