Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Wolfgang Cramer, Nebojsa
By Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Wolfgang Cramer, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Tom Wigley, Gary Yohe, Rajendra Pachauri, Tony Blair
The affects of weather swap are already being saw in numerous sectors and there's larger readability that those alterations are being attributable to human actions, commonly via liberate of greenhouse gases. In 2005 the united kingdom govt hosted the keeping off harmful weather swap convention to take an in-depth examine the medical concerns linked to weather swap. This quantity offers findings from the top foreign scientists that attended the convention. the themes addressed contain severe thresholds and key vulnerabilities of the weather procedure, affects on human and average platforms, socioeconomic charges and advantages of emissions pathways, and technological strategies for assembly assorted stabilisation degrees of greenhouse gases within the surroundings. the amount offers worthy details for researchers in environmental technology, climatology, and atmospheric chemistry, policy-makers in governments and environmental businesses, and scientists and engineers in undefined.
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Extra resources for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change
15. Grubler, A. and N. Nakicenovic, 2001: “Identifying Dangers in an Uncertain Climate”, Nature 412: 15. 16. K. I. Shlyakhter, 1999: “The Expected Value of Information and the Probability of Surprise”, Risk Analysis 19(1): 135–152. 17. , 2004: “Defusing the global warming time bomb”, Scientific American 290(3): 68–77. 18. , L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, J. Willis, A. Del Genio, D. Koch, A. Lacis, K. Lo, S. Menon, T. Novakov, J. Perlwitz, 22 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31.
At any threshold, climate policy controls significantly reduce the probability of DAI. 85°C (the thicker black line above), a 2050 carbon tax of Ͼ$150/ Ton C is necessary to virtually eliminate the probability of DAI. e. ‘optimal’ carbon taxes in this simple framework) can significantly reduce the probability of dangerous anthropogenic interference. This last finding has considerable implications for introducing climate information to policy-makers. We agree with Mastrandrea and Schneider that presenting climate modeling results and arguing for the benefits of climate policy should be framed for decision makers in terms of the potential for climate policy to reduce the likelihood of exceeding a DAI threshold – though we have argued that no such single threshold can be stated independent of the value systems of the stakeholders who name it.
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